| Jimmy Song
| Jhonny
2019 57գҰ (Binance) ڿʧ 7,000 ö BTC֮Ǻܿ쿴 Jeremy Rubin (رҺĿ) ĽҰ CEO Գķʽ˴εԡ
ģ@cz_binance (Գ) 㹫Щıҵ˽Կ (ЩԿһ)ͿɱȥĻЭһ (reorg) Ϊ
ȻʹҰǽ飬ݱҰ CEO Գ˵һЩ˽Э֮ƻˣ
ģ@cz_binance (Գ) 㹫Щıҵ˽Կ (ЩԿһ)ͿɱȥĻЭһ (reorg) Ϊ
ڱУ (Jimmy Song) ϸܿܵ鱳ļءijϣJimmy Song Ѿ֮ͨǰļҰ齫ҪѶٳɱ
1/ ͨѧ58ijɱ (ĿǰѾõйرҰȷϹϣֵ)
ͳɱ58*12.5 BTC = 725 BTC (ÿϻôͬĽã100%Ŀͬ飬עǰرڿ12.5 BTC)
2/ ֻ 75% Ŀͬ飬⽫ƽҪ 116 (൱ڱҰҪЩ75%ĿڿԼ 1,450 BTC116*12.5=1,450) Դϳǰͬ 60% Ŀͬ飬ƽҪ 290 (ҪЩڿΪ 3,625 BTC) ϳǰ 55% ͬ⣬Ҫ 580 (ҪЩڿΪ 7,250 BTC)
3/ 7,250 BTC >7,000 BTCҪ 55% () ͬ顣58ҪΪ 60%Ϊ116Ҫ 65% Ӧأ174Ҫ 70% 232Ҫ 75% пͬ飬ɱͻѸӡ
4/ κѡԭʼĿ˵ҲںܴķգΪ˷ķգЩЧڿԭ
5/ ݿһȡĶãζľʱҪ 232 ʱ̵Ķࡣ飬մӺڿǮѸҰδ̫ࡣ
6/ ʧСΪ725 BTCһСı仯
7/ Ұܵʱͷյ˫ؼѹÿһµ鶼һҪϳ飬ͳɱΪ12.5 BTCҪеڿѸЭ () ܲסǴЭܾҪһ(144)(עǰرƽÿ10Ӳ1飬24Сʱ144)
У߽иȫۡ
·УԿ Ari Paul (Ͷʹ˾ BlockTower Capital Ͷܼ) Adam Back (ˣ˾ Blockstream ϴʼ) Ƿڷ磺
Adam Black () : رDzᷢġҶκαرǿῼʾɡ2014 (Mt. Gox) 4.73Ԫʧ2016 Bitfinex 7,200Ԫʧ2019Ұ4,000Ԫʧȵȣ()#ûз
Ari Paul () ģһ뷨 Adam Back (ҲͬĹ۵)ȥûõġһЭ⣬൱¼Ҳܽ⡣
ϣAdam Ϊ鲻ᷢAri ΪʩʹΪܡ˭ǶԵأҪһЩ۷Ǵijʼ:
һģ
Ǽһdzģͣ 100% () ԸҰ顣
ijǼҰÿһȡϵ (Ȼⲻ̫)ÿһ⳥Э (ȻһЩͬ⣬һЩ̫ͬ)ɹʶǼĿǰû˲ͬ (Ȼ⼫)Ҳû˻Ὠһÿɵǰ
ȣǿĺǶ١һӵ 10% Ҵ˴ι֮Ҫ100飬ζŸÿҪԼѾԭʼڳ10Ľ ( 100*10%=10) ӦĽãҲ 125 ö BTC ( 10*12.5=125) ԼӦ齻á
(ע(reorg)ҲعֻҪг51%ڵҽǰ¿ʼһֲ棬ֻDZʱ (ͺĽ)ԭϵף·ֲ泤ȳԭͻᷢ顣ԼΪ·ֲ渲ԭЧǣڲӰ£عһʵҽס)
ҲΪÿܹڿôԼ10%齱ͿԵˣʵˡΪÿʱڣͿͨԼԭʼϼڿ10%齱 (Լ)ͬʱ÷֮ǰԭʼѾڳ10Ľ (Լ), ζŸÿΪҰʧ 125 ö BTC
ˣҰĿҪҰЩԭʼѾڳĽ (Լ) ǡУÿ 0.5 BTCãҲܹҪλӵ10%Ŀ 130 ö BTC ( 125 + 0.5*10=130)
ȫڷ (risk premium)Է⡣ӵ10%Ŀ֮⣬ûԸʹñҰµǾ˷ڶԭʼڿ
ŬûгɹҰòͬҪô۷գҪôе˷ѵʧ⽫DzһҪ֣Ϊñļʱⷽء
ˣҰڵԺʼͼ 100 飬ǽò֧ 1,300 BTC ijɱ ( 100*12.5+100*0.5=1,300 12.5 DZر齱0.5 ǿÿڳ1ܻ֮õĽ)Դձ 7,000 BTCҲҰ 5700 BTCӱҰĽǶΪһijΪǿһǮ
ĺʲôԵǣ齫֤رĻģΪҰǿƶ100飬κ㹻ǿʵҲͬ顣
⽫ᵼ˫ (double spending) ijԣκ100н˽ˣòΪŪʲôķʵϣͨпܻᵼ³ֱȵǰʧ 7,000 BTC ģ˫⣡ڱرϽн˵ⶼشĸţΪǵҰܹ飬û˻3-6εĽȷϴ
仰˵̼ҡûҪܴܺͷۣǣҪʹӦԿܵ˫⡣
ȵȣǻûС͵(ڿ)ʲô!
ˣǷdzܵģΪ»ᾭʹ˶Եֿ
һѡ
齫һķֲһΪľӵ55%100飬ϳǰζҪԼڳ 1,000 (Ҫ2ʱ)ֵı仯Ҳ൱УҪڳ 500 黹 1,500 鶼Ϊ档
ӵ 99% ҲҪڳ 101 (ԼҪ 20 Сʱ)(עǰرƽԼÿ10ڳһ飬101ʱԼΪ20Сʱ)
£ԭʼϣԷĿԭʼƣΪڿʼʱ100顣
֧ԭʼҪ100Ľ̼ҡûǶпܻᲹԭʼϵĿǿزԭʼһʸѻһ UTXO (δʹý) UTXO ֻԭʼЧ㹻ߣǺܶᱻջתԭʼڿ
ҪָԭʼϻһûǷĺڿ͡ҲᷢƵĽ (漰 UTXO Ϳ)Դԭʼͨߵ
һDZҰҰЩ̼Լûж˵Ҫ뷢ĺڿͽжˡ
ڿѾӱҰȡ 7,000 BTC˺ڿͿԽȫڼԭʼڿ֯顣
֮£Ұ뻨 1,300 BTC + ڿΪֹԸ⻨ѵĽ+/̼/ûֹԸ⻨ѵĽȻһʧܵĶDZҰΪֵû 1,300 BTC ͷڿ ( 13 BTC * ȷϴ)鲢ԱҰ
ܽ
ڸӵǻк߲ܶɿ豸ЩڿͿԼԶԱҰ˵һʧܵսҰеÿһԼڴ˴εʧʽ
һճ־õʵֻʦһ鷽Ψһ˾ǿЩǮͨĽ (ԱҰߺڿ) ϽDZرЭƳԣıijɱdz߰
Dzȥԭģʹڴģ֮Ҳˡ鲻˺˵ߣҲ˺ˡһļ嶯ȥıرҵĽʷ
οӣ
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/reorg-scenarios-binance-hack-edition-849fc7e7df07
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